At least one report has al Qaeda claiming responsibility for today’s assassination of Benazir Bhutto. When it comes to Pakistan, determining guilt for this bombing or that assassination is a humbling task. But if the former prime minister was, in fact, killed by al Qaeda, then they may have once again overplayed their hand.

After years of al Qaeda carnage, people reached a saturation point in Iraq when they found their every effort at forward momentum stifled. Pakistan may be nearing something like the nihilistic burnout that drove Iraqis to turn en masse on al Qaeda. The situations are different, for sure, but there are key similarities—the most important being the frustration of citizens as they approach democracy. As Max Boot has pointed out, Pakistanis are already underwhelmed by extremist efforts at responsible governance. Benazir Bhutto had her detractors, but she had more than enough support to put fear into President Musharraf. If Pakistanis have to endure another stretch of emergency crackdowns they’ll be loath to tolerate the further debilitating efforts of al Qaeda and their ilk. After all, hopes for the Parliamentary elections (slated to take place in two weeks) are now shot once more.

Reports of looting and rioting are coming in from Pakistan. Undoubtedly, that country is in the onset of dangerously violent convulsions. Security is the immediate concern, and restoring order will be a gargantuan feat. But after the dust settles, we may see the kind of organic desire for consensual government that no outside ally or diplomat has yet been able to consolidate or mobilize.