Today, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev growled at ex-Soviet Moldova, warning that any breakaway conflicts (particularly involving the region of Transdniestria) could inspire a Russian attack similar to the one against Georgia over two weeks ago.
“After the Georgian leadership lost their marbles, as they say, all the problems got worse and a military conflict erupted,” Medvedev told Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin.
“This is a serious warning, a warning to all,” he added. “And I believe we should handle other existing conflicts in this context.”
And there are other existing conflicts in the area, to be sure. It’s time the U.S. starts worrying about Transdniestria and all the other unpronounceable regions of the former Soviet Union, because if Russia begins swallowing them up due to conflicts we’ve never heard of, we’re going to awake one day to find that old red blob once again spreading across the Eurasian map.
The GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development was established in 2001 and consists of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. It would seem that a league of post-Soviet states working together to move policy (however slowly) Westward in spite of Russia’s backsliding represents the most positive post-Cold War development the U.S. could ask for. Yet we’re doing little to support most of these obvious allies. With the exception of Ukraine (who Russia threatens directly), these countries are marked by so-called “frozen” internal conflicts, and in each Russia is playing at least one side. In Azerbaijan, for example, Russia is arming the Armenians who now occupy the Nagorno Karabakh region against the Azeris. Because of OSCE agreements, the U.S. is forbidden to choose a side in this conflict, even as Azeris beg for America’s assistance.
If we can’t arm Azeris, we need to do more diplomatically to resolve the crisis. This means, among other things, putting pressure on Armenia. In the Caucasus, Russia has been steadily keeping at the divide part of a divide-and-conquer plan for years. Having invaded Georgia with impunity, they now know they can choose to blow down the houses of other neighbors at their own convenience. There is no reason to let them do so without so much as an attempt at prophylactic measures. Combined, the nations of GUAM cover over 300,000 square miles and contain more than 60,000,000 people. (This is to say nothing of their vast oil reserves.) That’s a lot of pro-Western promise to hand over to Vladimir Putin without a fight.
