Prepare yourself for the force of Barack Obama’s latest insight into the Russia-Georgia crisis:
Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. I reiterate my demand that Russia must abide by the ceasefire. Russia must know that its actions will have consequences.
Technically speaking he’s right, of course. Russia’s actions will have consequences. Obama failed to name them, so here is an incomplete list: the depletion of U.S. leverage in dealing with Moscow and therefore the freeing of Moscow from future cooperation with the West; the intensification of Russia’s threat to Georgia, including but not limited to the mobilization of Russian missile launchers on Georgian territory; the emboldening of the Kremlin; a sharp decrease in stability for the entire Caucasus; an increased threat to energy security; divided opinion within NATO; the projected impotence of the U.S.; a new Russian-Syrian alliance; and a humanitarian crisis marked by injuries, casualties, and refugees.
Obama is also right that Russia must be aware of these consequences. In fact, Russia was probably aware of them upon embarking on its aggressive action against Georgia. Also known to Russia beforehand was the American response, as exemplified in Obama’s quote above: a repeated “demand,” backed by nothing, that Russia behave in accordance with U.S. wishes. So meaningless is Obama’s version of this line that he couldn’t even come up with a specific ultimatum to bluff about. Game, set, and match to Putin.