Via Politicker, the Obama campaign is just oozing confidence heading into the home stretch:

In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney. …

The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.

“Keep calm and tweet on,” Ms. Cutter said. “So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”

Exit polling is notoriously unreliable, so Cutter is actually giving good advice here. But as Erika Johnson points out, the early votes really don’t seem to have the Obama campaign where they “need to be” — and, based on Stephanie Cutter’s apparent concern about election day turnout, she knows it. Would a campaign that believed it was cruising on early votes really be this jittery about leaked exit polls? It sounds like they think the race is more of a toss-up than they’re letting on.