It’s a disappointment to many conservatives, but it never sounded like Paul Ryan’s heart was in this anyway. The Draft Ryan movement gave it an admirable try, but in the end, Ryan’s instincts were telling him no.

Here’s the congressman’s statement to the Weekly Standard:

“I sincerely appreciate the support from those eager to chart a brighter future for the next generation. While humbled by the encouragement, I have not changed my mind, and therefore I am not seeking our party’s nomination for president. I remain hopeful that our party will nominate a candidate committed to a pro-growth agenda of reform that restores the promise and prosperity of our exceptional nation. I remain grateful to those I serve in Southern Wisconsin for the unique opportunity to advance this effort in Congress.”

So, there you have it. The field is pretty much set – with the exception of one large, looming question mark. Will Sarah Palin take the plunge? Now that the Tea Party conservatives have Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry to choose from, time is running out for Palin to mount a successful bid for the nomination. Her coyness is also reaching the point where it’s starting to wear on some conservatives, who resent being strung along on a ride that smacks more of a publicity tour than a presidential campaign. If Palin enters the race only to bomb out, she’ll do serious damage to her stature as a conservative icon.

There’s also the question of Palin’s electability in a general election. Republicans – even very conservative ones – are more interested in nominating a candidate who can beat Obama than one who gives them a thrill up the leg. Palin has high national negatives that Romney, Perry, and even Bachmann, don’t have (at least not yet).

And with the latest Gallup poll showing the current top-tier candidates have the presidency within their grasps, will Republicans risk it all with a candidate who has little chance of winning a general election?

While trying to predict Palin’s next move is as useless as trying to predict next month’s weather, there are certainly more than enough reasons for her to sit 2012 out. So let’s get used to the current field, because Ryan was the last serious chance at a dark horse candidate.

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