How crucial is tonight’s debate for Mitt Romney? Well, he’s dropping to a distant second in Florida, and his national lead on Newt Gingrich has disintegrated to just one point, according to Gallup’s latest tracking poll (via Ed Morrissey at HotAir):

Hey, Mitt Romney can finally look at a poll today where he’s leading. Unfortunately, it’s still bad news for Romney, as the Gallup national tracking poll shows Newt Gingrich has closed to within one point over the last three days. Romney now leads Gingrich only 29/28, dropping one point while Gingrich rose three overnight. That means that polling over the last couple of days has gone for Gingrich as the race heads into Florida.

Most of Romney’s problems can be traced back to last week’s debates. He was leading in every South Carolina poll up until Jan. 18, two days after the first South Carolina primary-week debate. At that point Gingrich pulled ahead, and gained a ton of momentum with his Jan. 19 performance.

In other words, Romney can’t afford another blunder like his unprepared comments on his tax returns. He needs to effectively demolish the idea that Newt would be more electable than him against President Obama, but avoid any attacks that may come off as personal or unfair. The best outcome for Romney would be if Gingrich injures himself by making an exceptionally ridiculous comment. Because Gingrich is becoming the Tea Party favorite, attacking him too strongly at a live debate could end up backfiring on Romney, depending on the audience’s reaction.

All of the pressure is on Romney tonight. Gingrich’s aggressive attacks on the moderators and President Obama have clearly been working, and as long as he’s able to keep that up tonight – while deflecting attacks from Romney and Santorum – he should be fine.