George Bush is just completing a farewell European tour but in Paris, where I have spent the past week, Barack Obama is very much the focus of media attention. He is a “planetary phenomenon” according to Le Monde. The French press, however, is not sure exactly what to make of this.
One story line is that the United States has strayed under George Bush, offending against world opinion, but that the election of Barack Obama can secure for us absolution and redemption.
That we are unpopular is true. The polls from the Pew Global Project Attitudes show that only in Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and Lebanon do a majority of people have a favorable opinion of the United States (64%, 53%, and 51% respectively). In Brazil, Russia, France, and China we have sizable positive minorities (47%, 46%, 42% and 41% respectively). Elsewhere our showing is abysmal: Germany at 31%, Egypt at 22% and Pakistan and Turkey at 19% and 12% respectively. (These are all the countries for which figures are given).
To say precisely why we are unpopular is extremely difficult. My own sense is that a sort of American original sin lies at the root. Something is fundamentally wrong with us and with our actions, particularly our military actions, that renders them qualitatively different from those of any other country.
And redemption? That will above all come from who Obama is, his person and his life so far—his parcours –“son of a Kenyan Muslim father, born in Hawaii, raised in Indonesia” Those aspects of Obama that make him unlike most Americans, in other words, are the keys to paradise.
Commentary is overwhelmingly favorable about Obama, in particular about his bold promise to talk without preconditions to states such as Iran and Cuba.
A huge discrepancy, however, suggests that even the authors of this narrative do not really believe it. The same poll that documented unfavorable opinion of the United States also asked how much confidence respondents had in Obama’s projected international policies. The results will bring no joy to the Obama camp.
The countries having “a lot” of confidence in Obama’s foreign policy—25% and 23% respectively, are the ones that disapprove of us most strongly: Turkey and Pakistan. In five countries, confidence in Obama’s policies is in single digits: China 2%, Egypt 4%, Russia 5%, Lebanon 5%, Brazil 5%. The highest confidence is in Germany (24%) with Nigeria and France tied at 16%, and the United Kingdom at 13%.
Obama the man is idolized, the policies of Obama the possible president are viewed with profound skepticism. These contradictory commentaries and figures show that the world, like much of America, is swept up in a dream or fantasy about Obama. Unlike America, however, the world seems to understand that it is a dream. That is shown by the abysmal ratings they give to what they think Obama might actually do as president.