A Fatally Flawed Deal

The conclusion of a framework nuclear agreement between the P5+1 powers and Iran is being presented by the Obama administration as the only rational alternative to war and the crowning achievement of the president’s foreign policy. But the problems with this deal, achieved only by an endless stream of Western concessions, are numerous and serious.

The Sunset Clause

The West has bowed to Tehran’s intransigence and agreed to let the weak restrictions being set on the Iranian program expire after 15 years. That means that even in the unlikely event that Iran abides by the terms of the deal, the sunset clause ensures that once the 15 years are up, it can proceed to build bombs without having to face accusations of violating its commitments.

The Stockpile Stays Put

Throughout the negotiation process, it was assumed that any deal would require Iran to ship its enriched uranium out of the country, so observers were shocked to learn that the West had failed to secure agreement on this point. While the stockpile will supposedly be reduced to a state that is not usable for nuclear fuel, it can be easily and quickly reconverted.

No Surprise Inspections

President Obama has promised that Iranian nuclear facilities will be subjected to thorough inspections, to ensure that Iran cannot cheat. But the agreement does not require Iran to allow inspectors to visit any place at any time of their choosing. Scheduled inspections will not uncover the Iranians’ cheating.

Breakout

President Obama has said that the deal’s main achievement is to create a situation in which Iran could not “break out” to a bomb in less than a year by cheating. That gives the West plenty of time to keep the mullahs from getting a nuclear weapon, he says. Such assurance is unfounded. The lack of a mechanism to put sanctions back in place immediately and the implausibility of a military option if Obama or a like-minded president is in office make even one year far too short a period to guarantee the West’s stopping Iran in time.

Nuclear Research

Nothing in the agreement stops Iran from continuing to push forward with research it could use to build a nuclear arsenal. President Obama unwittingly admitted as much when he said in an interview with NPR that in the later years of the deal, the “breakout time” for Iran to race to a weapon illegally will shrink.

Military Research

Iran has refused to open facilities to United Nations inspectors, who want to know the extent of the regime’s military nuclear research. Without such knowledge about the program, there is no way to accurately gauge how long Iran’s breakout time might be or whether it is cheating on the deal. Since the deal allows Iran to remain mum on this score, any assurances about America’s ability to monitor its progress toward a bomb are only empty promises.

Centrifuges Spin

President Obama promised in 2012 that any deal with Iran would mean the end of its nuclear program. But the deal he is promoting allows Iran to keep several thousand nuclear centrifuges operating. Such a massive nuclear infrastructure ensures Iran will continue to produce material it can eventually use for a bomb. The only way to be sure it won’t get a bomb is to dismantle these machines.

Fordow

Iran’s mountainside redoubt at Fordow presents a particular problem since it is virtually invulnerable to attack. Closing it down would be a statement of good faith that Iran is not planning a bomb. But instead of demanding that, the agreement allows it to continue operating with several hundred centrifuges. Those machines are not supposed to be used for nuclear work, but they can be easily converted for that purpose.

ICBMs

Not mentioned anywhere in the nuclear “deal” is Iran’s missile program. If, as it claims, it is not seeking to build a bomb, why is Iran building intercontinental missiles? Such missiles are a dagger pointed not at Israel but at the United States and Europe. Any nuclear deal should have included the end of this project. 

Terror

President Obama believes Iran’s bad behavior must be separated from the nuclear question because any demand that it cease supporting international terrorism is tantamount to a call for a regime change. But the danger here is not just that Iran will use a bomb, but that it might give one to its terrorist auxiliaries to use or might extend a nuclear umbrella over allies in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, or Syria.

Israel Threatened

The president has dismissed Israel’s demands that Iran be forced to recognize the Jewish state’s existence, believing that such a recognition is irrelevant to his purpose of stopping Iran’s quest for a bomb. Since Iran will be able to build a weapon after the deal expires, there will be an anti-Semitic regime threatening Israel with annihilation before long—and it will have the means to do so. Unless Iran renounces that goal, Israel is in mortal peril.