To the Editor:

It remains an open question whether the many revolutions of the Arab Spring will yield truly democratic societies, as Joshua Muravchik states [“Neoconservatives and the Arab Spring,” September 2011]. The various dangers posed by radicals, venal individuals, and populists alike all loom in the interim. The potential for disappointment and failure is great, and the consequences for the citizens of these countries—and the security environment of the Middle East—will be momentous.

Yet it will be crucial to any meaningful evaluation of the legacy of these revolutions to recognize that time will be a key factor. The Egyptian Papyrus, the document setting forth principles for a new constitution, may prove close to the mark with its estimate that it could take 20 years before a democratic system is firmly established.

In Egypt and other Arab countries, illiteracy and substandard education are severe problems that have created an environment in which Islamism, corruption, and populist-nationalist leadership can all thrive. It will take about 20 years to educate a new generation. This may prove too long for those hoping for faster change, but it is probably a realistic time frame for meaningful results to take hold.

Stacey E. Blau
Miami, Florida

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Joshua Muravchik writes:

I thank Stacey Blau for her valuable observations, but I doubt the problem is as simple as bad education and its solution as simple as better education. There is a chicken-and-egg paradox. Are the deficiencies of the educational system cause or effect of so much else that is wrong with Egyptian culture? What is clear is that for democracy to succeed, large numbers of Egyptians need to think differently.

Some of this new thinking can perhaps be deduced in reaction to the unhappy experience of Egyptian governance until now. Some of it might be learned from the experience of nascent democracy: It is not unusual for the assimilation of democratic norms to follow, rather than precede, the practice of democratic formalities. Some could come from effective articulation by liberal-minded advocates, although, alas, it is hard to see many such in Egypt today. Of course, an overhaul of the formal educational system could help immensely, but who is going to educate the educators?