A few weeks back, the Israeli media made a big deal about a mysterious arms acquisiton request that Israel had made to Washington, and that Washington had turned down. This weekend Ha’aretz reported that we’re talking about refuelling jets — a fairly clear sign that Israel is interested in moving forward with preparation for a possible attack on Iran, and that Washington is uninterested in anything of the sort — at least not before November. But then again, there’s nothing new here. US Administrations routinely try to prevent any major new international crises during the months before a presidential election. From the Bush administration’s perspective, there is no greater threat to American security than an Obama victory, and an attack on Iran really does carry risks of “instability” that could ricochet back against McCain.

From an Israeli perspective, however, there is only so far that American pressure can go in preventing Israel from acting if the Iranian technological timetable demands it. And just as US foreign policy is right now beholden to electoral concerns, so might Israel’s be, but in reverse — there is nothing, after all, like a major military crisis to potentially keep Olmert in power and make Israelis forget about Morris Talansky for a while.