Nothing should trouble Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak more than a dramatic new poll conducted by the Palestine Center for Policy and Survey Research, and reported in today’s Jerusalem Post. According to the poll, Hamas leader Yismail Haniyeh has now pulled ahead of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, 47% to 45%, in a popularity survey conducted in the West Bank alone. If elections were held in the West Bank today, the poll suggests, Haniyeh would be the new president of the Palestinian Authority.

The poll suggests that the December Gaza war, known as Operation Cast Lead, may have backfired. And we can understand why: By leaving the Hamas regime in place, Israel gave Haniyeh the opportunity to declare himself the victor, just by virtue of his having survived — much the way Saddam Hussein touted his “defeat” of American forces after the first Gulf War, or the way Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has done since the 2006 Lebanon War. Among Palestinians, the logic of heroism seems to outweigh the logic of pragmatism: By showing that one can stand up against the overwhelming might of the enemy and not get killed, one is labeled a hero, regardless of the damage done to one’s own infrastructure, economy, and military.

Things weren’t supposed to turn out this way. The whole purpose of the operation, we were told repeatedly by Livni and Barak (as well as Ehud Olmert, but who remembers?) was to change the strategic reality on the ground, to re-establish Israel’s deterrent force, to make life safe for residents in Israel’s south. We have seen Hamas continue, long after the war, to lob its missiles at Israeli civilians. Now we know why: Haniyeh has emerged as the new savior of the Palestinians.

This could easily have been avoided. Operation Cast Lead handed Israel everything it needed to eliminate the Hamas regime. Israel had the tacit support to do so, not just from the U.S. and Europe, but also from Egypt and even the Palestinian Authority. And it had the capability as well: A much-revamped IDF showed far superior tactical abilities in Cast Lead than it had in 2006. But what was missing was what so often seems to be missing among Israel’s leaders — a recognition of the strategic need, and of the political moment.

Would Benjamin Netanyahu, who will now inherit this strategic conundrum, have done better? Unfortunately, we may have to find out, in the months and years to come.