Back in July, I expressed deep skepticism at the apparent intention of the U.S. to adopt nuclear deterrence as a response to a nuclear Iran—if its engagement policy fails to persuade the regime.

Further proof that the idea of deterrence through the extension of the nuclear umbrella to U.S. allies in the region is a non-starter emerged in the past few days, when Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the region, dismissed the idea out of hand. As NTI reported yesterday, a number of recent statements by Egyptian officials (including by President Hosni Mubarak during his visit to the White House last week) have made it clear that they are not interested in a nuclear umbrella for three reasons: They will not defer their national security to foreign troops—that means that if a nuclear umbrella is needed, they’ll develop their own. They do not want Iran to go nuclear—they prefer prevention. And they loathe the underlying idea of the U.S. proposal because it “would imply an implicit acceptance that there is a regional nuclear power—we do not accept that either”—among other reasons, because it would challenge Egypt’s status as a regional power.

So good luck to engagement. When that fails, the administration will quickly discover that everyone in the region prefers bombing to deterrence.