Noah Pollak has correctly pointed out the risks of linking efforts to stop Iran from going nuclear with progress on the Palestinian-Israeli track. One of the risks is that the timelines for the two phenomena are different and play to the disadvantage of U.S. goals:

This of course gives rise to a predictable set of questions, such as: what if Israeli-Palestinian peace will take many years to accomplish, but the Iranian nuclear bomb will only take a year or two to accomplish? Obama essentially proposes that America will race the Iranians – our peace process versus their nuclear program. Does anyone wonder who will win?

Clearly, the answer is Iran. One cannot blame Netanyahu for failing to impress on President Obama that this linkage is silly. But the bottom line is that anyone who believes that Israel will gain regional support against Iran only once it concedes on the Palestinian issue is a fool. Gulf states are not going to line up behind Israel against Iran as a favor to the Jewish state once Palestinians have their own. Since when have Arab regimes been so altruistic? History points in a different direction. Both in 1991 and in 2003 Arab countries endorsed, actively participated in, or acquiesced to a U.S. war against an aggressive Arab neighbor. Both times, peace processors in the West and radicals in the East suggested a similar linkage — first solve Palestine, then we can all unite against the common enemy. And both times — niceties such as the Madrid conference and the Roadmap aside — those Arab governments who felt threatened enough let the war-dance begin without waiting for deliverance for the Palestinians.

Their track record of helping the Palestinians does not lend strength to the linkage thesis, anyway. Even at the level of financial aid, the gap between pledged money and given money is evidence that Arab leaders rarely put their money where their mouths are, when it comes to the Palestinians.

The hard and simple truth is that pro-American regional powers — especially Egypt and the Gulf States — see Iran’s ambitions of regional hegemony as a direct threat.

It is unlikely they will put the cause Palestine over their own survival.

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