In Florida, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are in a virtual tie heading into the January 29th winner take-all GOP primary. But I would have never known that from talking to people during my trip to Florida last week. That’s because my ambit extended no further than Fort Lauderdale to Boca Raton along the Atlantic coast, an area that’s heavily settled by pro-Rudy people from the New York Metropolitan area. Giuliani will do very well in this heavily Jewish area as there are even Democrats who have switched their registration to the GOP to support him. And he has support further south where refugees from Castro and other Latin American thugs are drawn to both Giuliani and McCain. But it’s not clear how well he will do in the other Floridas, such as the central Florida farming areas, the Tampa-Orlando tourism and high-tech corridor, and the northern tier with close ties to the military that stretches from Jacksonville on the Atlantic to Pensacola snuggled up against Alabama on the Gulf Coast. McCain has ties to this northern tier. He trained in Pensacola and his family spent his years of captivity in Jacksonville. Huckabee has a strong network of Christian support on the Florida Panhandle and Romney has a natural affinity with the Republican business community.

Romney has sometimes been written off regarding Florida despite the support of Jeb Bush. But in a multi-polar state with 10 major media markets, Romney’s money gives him an important advantage in an election where marked support for four strong candidates means that it’s possible to take all of Florida’s bounty of delegates which as little as 30 percent of the vote. And that’s where the Giuliani strategies come in. Absentee mail balloting began two weeks ago and by some estimates, almost half of all votes will have been cast by primary day. First and foremost Giuliani who, first began contacting voters here in the summer of 2007, has been working Florida at the cost of his national poll standing, is counting on winning the absentee balloting. He concludes every appearance, every rally, every speech with the cry of “let’s go vote.” Another part of his strategy is to target specific issues that appeal to the non-New Yorkers. Besides talking tough on Castro, he’s detailed plans for 1) a national disaster fund, a concept that appeals to a state that’s been so hard hit by hurricanes and 2) an expansion of the space program.

But for all that the election might well come down to the economy. Overall Florida is teetering on the edge of recession. Home sales fell about 20 percent nationally in 2007, but 30 percent in Florida where home prices decline by 10 percent compared to the three percent nationally. Retails sales, a proxy for consumer spending dropped 5 percent in the state last year and even more sharply in some areas. In Pompano, where I was staying and even in tony Boca, there are numerous empty stores. In one, previously very successful Pompano mall, 30 percent of the retail space is now unoccupied with, I’m told scant prospect of being rented out during this cycle. Housing wise, the local brokers have their heads in their hands as the inventory of condos that can’t be moved pile up and prices sink further.

The former Massachusetts Governor and New Yorker mayor are the two who have spoken with the most authority and depth on the economy. Romney who won Michigan with pie in the sky rhetoric finally has an issue with the economy where he comes off as genuine. Giuliani has outlined a well thought out tax-cutting agenda for dealing with Global competition. But from my conversations, and what I read and saw neither has been able to speak to the effects of the bursting the mortgage asset bubble which in turn has sharply reduced consumption. It’s reasonably likely, unforeseen events aside, that the candidate best able to speak to that issue over the next nine days will win Florida and the momentum need to go on to Super Tuesday.