On the surface, the current brouhaha over Rudy Giuliani’s nuanced stance on abortion makes no sense. Ever since Roe v. Wade, it’s been the courts, not the executive, that shape and drive abortion policy. Guiliani has said that, like Bush, he will appoint strict-constructionist judges. So what’s the fuss about?
Well, the struggle over abortion is an important proxy in the fight for control of the Republican party. In the wake of the shellacking the GOP took in the 2006 mid-term elections, the social conservatives were set back on their heels. Like many liberals, they seem to have foolishly believed all the talk about the genius of Karl Rove in creating an unstoppable Republican electoral machine. Even though the Republicans’ massive defeat had been predicted by the polls, it was an enormous shock, and provided the opening that allowed Giuliani to emerge as the GOP frontrunner.
With no success in Iraq in sight, Republicans are in a very weak position for the 2008 presidential campaign. Many see Giuliani as the only way to stave off a Democratic landslide. But in the months since the midterm elections, the party’s conservative activists have regrouped. Despite the public’s growing moderation on the abortion issue, activists like David O’Steen of the National Right to Life Committee suggest that Giuliani’s nuanced position on abortion disqualifies him from receiving the nomination. They argue, in effect, that Roe v. Wade trumps 9/11. What’s more, they have been given ammunition by the seeming inconsistencies of Giuliani’s response to the question about abortion at the first GOP debate.
Giuliani clarified his stand, and threw down a gauntlet, with the speech he gave last Friday at Houston Baptist College. He both affirmed his pro-choice position and defended his role in the Republican party, arguing, essentially, that the GOP must be a big tent or else face defeat in 2008. The speech was received with predictable hostility by some conservative leaders, but the crowd in Houston gave it a standing ovation. Which suggests that Giuliani’s viability does not depend on his stance on abortion, and that the future leadership of the GOP remains an open question.
