If there is a political law of gravity, sooner or later the totalitarian regime in North Korea is going to come to an end. A socio-economic system so mired in failure, a political system so contrary to the basic human aspiration for freedom, cannot stay aloft forever.

That, at least, is the optimistic assumption of Andrew Scobell, a professor of international affairs at Texas A & M, who has engaged in the fascinating exercise of forecasting exactly how it will collapse.

Scobell posits five possible scenarios, each of which correspond to the demise or transformation of other Communist regimes:

Suspended animation — Albania

Soft landing — China

Crash landing — Romania

Soft landing/crash landing hybrid — the USSR

Suspended animation/soft landing hybrid — Cuba

Scobell explains each possibility at length and tries to see which one best fits the North Korean future. He finds, tentatively, that “the closest to the reality of the North Korea’s current situation is a Cuban mix of ad hoc reforms and regime holding pattern.”

Scobell may or may not be wrong about that. But after watching North Korea for years, traveling there in the early 1990’s, and, most recently, reading The Reluctant Communist, the horrifying tale of an American soldier kept there in captivity for forty years, I would much prefer to see a Romanian-style crash landing.

Scobell thinks it likely that if the regime abruptly disintegrates

this could mean not just extreme disorganization of power but a civil war or a collapse situation with significant pockets of organized armed resistance. In the latter situation, while elements of the coercive apparatus would surrender or disband and flee, others might vigorously resist. Some hardcore elements might engage in insurgency operations for months or even years.

Obviously, this could a very dangerous scenario, costly in human life, and one that might spill across international borders with unpredictable consequences. But am I being irresponsible in stating that for a regime so profoundly evil, the day of violent reckoning cannot come too soon? If there was ever a case where the tree of liberty was in need of some refreshment from the blood of tyrants, this would appear to be it.

Unfortunately, all of this may be idle speculation. Scobell also notes that

the deathwatch for the Pyongyang regime has lasted more than 15 years. Those who predicted or anticipated its imminent demise have had to eat their words or do a lot of explaining. Pyongyang is far from dead, and there is evidence that the regime may be regrouping.

I hope he’s wrong.