Will China invade Vietnam? That question, at first glance, sounds preposterous-but not to Hanoi. The Vietnamese in recent days twice summoned the Chinese ambassador to protest “invasion plans” posted on at least four Chinese websites. The plans detail a 31-day operation and an attack of 310,000 troops. Beijing denied it had anything to do with the postings, which “by no means represented China’s stance.”
There is ample reason for the Vietnamese to be concerned. First, the last invasion by China in its history was directed against Vietnam. That occurred in 1979 when Deng Xiaoping, who is still revered in Communist Party of China circles, sought to “punish” that country. Second, the Chinese claim Vietnam’s continental shelf in the South China Sea and this claim has given rise to tension in the last few months. In July, Beijing issued threats against ExxonMobil, demanding the U.S. firm terminate its exploration deal with state oil company PetroVietnam. Third, the Chinese have used military measures to buttress their South China Sea claims, occupying the Philippines’s Mischief Reef in 1995, for instance. Fourth, Beijing actively patrols its websites and immediately removes material deemed offensive. Hanoi, therefore, was puzzled why the invasion plans stayed up so long.
And then there is one more reason. “The Chinese government attaches importance to the development of Sino-Vietnamese relations and is actively committed to strengthening publicity of the Sino-Vietnamese friendship,” Beijing’s Foreign Ministry said in reply to Hanoi’s recent protests. Yes, but China has been the primary adversary of the Vietnamese for centuries. That’s why Vietnam, a communist state that fought a ferocious war against Americans, welcomes Washington’s active presence in the region at this moment.
And speaking of the United States, the Chinese have undoubtedly noticed Washington’s weak diplomacy of late. Our lack of resolve, unfortunately, creates opportunities for aggressors and troublemakers of all stripes. As Carl Thayer of the Australian National University notes, a Chinese invasion of Vietnam these days is unthinkable. So was Russia’s invasion of Georgia–until last month.
