Yesterday, Vladimir Putin issued his latest threat to the West, declaring “there will be an answer” to the increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea. “We don’t understand what American ships are doing on the Georgian shores, but this is a question of taste, it’s a decision by our American colleagues,” he said. “The second question is why the humanitarian aid is being delivered on naval vessels armed with the newest rocket systems.”
Last week, the United States began delivering aid to the endangered Georgian republic by warship. On August 24, the USS McFaul, a destroyer, arrived in Batumi, a Black Sea port. Three days later, the Coast Guard’s Dallas offloaded aid there while Georgians cheered and chanted “USA! USA!” The United States also sent the command ship Mount Whitney into the Black Sea. The big story here is that, despite harsh Kremlin rhetoric, the Russians have not tried to interfere with American ships.
Now that Putin has raised the issue, however, we need to begin thinking about whether Russia will try to interdict American aid deliveries in the coming days. That would seem inconceivable, but we did not anticipate an invasion either. It’s true that yesterday the prime minister said the Kremlin’s reaction “will be calm,” but he refused to say what he will specifically do, leaving us with a “You’ll see.” In any event, any assistance to Georgia, by warship or not, would seem to violate Russia’s “privileged” sphere of influence claimed by President Dmitry Medvedev on Sunday in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
To enforce that sphere, Russia has recently demanded American compliance with the Montreux Convention, which regulates vessels transiting the Turkish Straits to and from the Black Sea (the United States is not a party to the agreement). J. E. Dyer, a former naval officer who regularly posts comments in this forum, has suggested that Washington start planning to put carriers into that body of water, which would essentially require a renegotiation of the convention because it prohibits such ships passing though Turkey’s waters.
At first glance, committing America’s largest vessels to the Georgian conflict sounds drastic. Yet at this point we have to assume that former Soviets will try almost anything in the Black Sea.
