Yesterday was a happy day in selected parts of Havana—Cuba’s leader turned 81. Fidel has been ailing, and his younger brother Raul, who is also the defense minister, has been the head of a caretaker government since July 31, 2006. Many suspect the elder Castro, who once had the stamina to give ten-hour speeches, will never regain the strength to run his homeland.

Fidel has resisted economic liberalization of any kind, but for several years he has acknowledged that change is coming. At the beginning of this decade, CNN quoted El Maximo Lider as saying, “I believe that the ideals of socialism, which are so generous and appeal so much to solidarity and fraternity, will one day disappear.”

The general assumption is that socialism in Cuba will disappear when Fidel leaves this world to visit Marx. There are already reports that Raul has moved to push the island’s Soviet-like economy in the direction of Chinese-style reform. The accounts appear plausible if only because every outside observer believes that things must change soon.

While we in the West are always optimistic when communist nations change their leaders, we are usually disappointed by the reality of the change. Today, we have to remember that, despite all our hopes, political repression has gotten worse under the younger Castro’s watch.

So what will America do when Raul finally takes over? Let’s try something different; our current approach to Cuba is obviously not working. American policy is hostile enough to give the Castro brothers an enemy—something all communist tyrants need—but not threatening enough actually to get rid of their repugnant regime. No wonder Fidel is the world’s longest serving national leader.

We could try to kill Cuban communism by swamping it with consumer goods, or by tightening the embargo. The point is that change must come to Havana, and that Washington’s perspective on Cuba must change.