“Everybody has understood that Iran is the number one power in the world,” said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the end of last month, launching another broadside against domestic critics and foreign enemies. “Today the name of Iran means a firm punch in the teeth of the powerful and it puts them in their place,” he continued. The comments of the fiery leader came as he defended his record before Friday’s parliamentary elections. The elections are correctly seen as a referendum of his policies.
The outcome of the contest is not in doubt: his most capable adversaries have been eliminated by the Guardian Council, the country’s constitutional watchdog. Yet he needs a strong turnout and high votes for his candidates. Because Ahmadinejad cannot run on his domestic record–he has not delivered on the populist pledges he made in 2005–he has chosen to raise the flag of nationalism by campaigning against foreigners. “You can see how some people here . . . try to materialize the plans of the enemies by showing that Iran is small and the enemy is big,” he said on February 28 on state television. “These are the people who put the enemies of humanity in the place of God.”
Since then, Ahmadinejad’s allies have tried to use every foreign indication of disapproval of the regime in their campaign. “They adopted a hasty resolution in order to influence the elections, so that people would not go and vote,” said senior cleric Hojatoleslam Ahmad Khatami, referring to the Security Council’s third set of sanctions against Iran, last Friday. “But with the help of God, Iranians will surprise them, and both the United States and the Security Council will be blinded.”
Surprises are always possible in Iran’s rigged elections. Ahmadinejad, for instance, was not exactly a front-runner three years ago. This time, reformists, who can point to the president’s mismanagement of the economy, could derail his chances for re-election in June next year by scoring big this week–or as big as they will be allowed. In general, the Iranian people want free elections, change, and a better economy. Many of them even want better relations with the United States. They won’t get any of these things after this week’s poll, but they will be able to signal their discontent, just as they did in Tehran’s municipal elections in 2006.
Ahmadinejad’s campaign against the Great Satan is losing its appeal with most voters in Tehran and even in his strongholds outside the capital. The fact that he continues to rail against outsiders indicates he has nothing else to offer. If he fares poorly on Friday, the international community can expect him to be even more hostile in the months ahead.
