The 21st century begins next year, E. J. Dionne, Jr. writes this morning. The September 11 attacks did not define the new era, because the Bush administration “resolutely forced events into the interpretive boxes fashioned in previous decades.” Besides, terrorists had no coherent ideas. Instead, after the Washington Post columnist tells us the United States is under the misapprehension that it is the world’s only superpower, he suggests the new century begins in 2009 because the United States will have a new president.
Did you follow that? Dionne apparently has trouble making coherent arguments, but I nonetheless suspect his ultimate conclusion is correct. After all, September 11 did not end the prosperity of the post-Cold War period, and the events of that day did not affect, in a meaningful way, that many individuals around the world. This year and next, however, appear to be watershed years. The global downturn promises to touch most everyone’s life and substantially change the geopolitical landscape.
Of course, it is exceedingly difficult to make accurate pronouncements about the historical significance of ongoing events. Perhaps in fifty years we will be able to conclusively mark the beginning of the current century. Yet events today do have an end-of-era feel to them.
The assumptions most of us made at the beginning of this year–about the continuation of globalization, the resurgence of India, the rise of the authoritarian states, and the general maintenance of geopolitical order, just to name a few of them–all seem so, well, 20th century. Almost all of us were guilty of extrapolation a half year ago. Now, many recognize the possibility of–or even predict-discontinuous change.
The world, as it changes, is always in transition. Yet at some points in history we pass not only from one day to the next but from one period to another. We could be approaching one of those moments. In fact, I think we are.
Change has generally meant progress, and today we live in the best time in history. Never has humankind created and consumed so much, possessed as much knowledge, or had so much power to accomplish its aims. If we were confident about the future at the beginning of this year, we had good cause for optimism. As more than six billion people strived to better their lot, the world looked as if it would continue to get better.
Yet further progress, however probable it once appeared, is not foreordained. Next year, which looks as if it will be marked by economic failure and its inevitable geopolitical consequences, could start a time more consequential than any of us can imagine at this moment.
