In route to the Republican Convention, I see that the day is a good one so far for John McCain. First, he must be grateful for the presence of John Kerry. Everytime he speaks I suspect another thousand votes switch to John McCain. Next we see another indication that Barack Obama’s Convention bounce is kaput. We’ll see what things look like in a few days. And finally due to Gustav, neither George W. Bush or Dick Cheney will be able to attend the Republican Convention on Monday. It would be impolitic to say this is a blessing for McCain. But it is.

Election victories are not entirely determined by the relative merit of the candidates. They are also the result of unexpected events, little bits of luck, and good strategic decisions.