Once again, liberals are throwing around the race card. No, it’s not Gates-gate. The Democrats are threatening a “backlash” (read: ethnic resentment) if Republicans don’t vote for Sotomayor for the Supreme Court. Aside from the utter unseemliness (imagine threatening Democrats who opposed Sam Alito with an “Italian backlash”), Democrats don’t have much evidence to back up their threats.

Wendy Long points out that there’s no polling evidence that Sotomayor helps Obama with Hispanics:

From the week of July 13–19 to the week July 20–26, Obama suffered a 7-point drop in support among Hispanics. Correlation does not mean causation, of course, but the fact that the drop occurred in the week following the Sotomayor confirmation hearings means at least one thing for the cynical, identity-politics play by the Obama White House: It didn’t work.

Maybe the president stupidly assumed the entire country is motivated by race.

Other polling bears out Long’s take:

Of those voters who say they have learned enough about Sotomayor to make a decision, 49 percent favor her confirmation and 49 percent oppose her confirmation. Surprisingly, even Hispanic voters are roughly split on Sotomayor, as 47 percent favor her confirmation and 43 percent oppose it. Independent voters, however, oppose Judge Sotomayor’s confirmation 55 percent to 44 percent, as do small business owners 52 to 42 percent. A majority of gun owners (67 percent) also oppose her confirmation, while only 30 percent support it.

So maybe the real question isn’t whether Republicans can survive a Hispanic Backlash but whether Democrats can survive one from gun owners.