Mickey Kaus lists the people who don’t like ObamaCare: old people, young people, and opponents of the bill. As for supporters of the bill, he explains:

Two subgroups here: i) Those who wanted more (like a public option or single payer) are disappointed and maybe angry and demoralized. But at least they have a good reason to show up at the polls (to elect liberals who will help them achieve what they want). ii) Those who didn’t necessarily want more–who are happy with the Pelosi/Reid product–have far less incentive to show up. For them, the deed is done. Unless, that is, Dems can somehow bait the Republicans into making repeal of Reid/Pelosi a hard-core pledge.

But even with those voters, he may be overestimating their support for the Democrats. The principled proponents of the Left, who think this is a giant sellout to big insurance companies, might very well stay home – or try to run primary opponents against establishment Democratic incumbents (remember Nick Lamont?), vote for third-party candidates, and refuse to donate to the incumbents who sold them down the river. They can be very disruptive, which is why Obama, on everything from Afghanistan to health care, has gone to great pains to try to soothe their hurt feelings (e.g., give them a withdrawal deadline on the Afghanistan surge).

And then there are many other groups (some overlapping) that hate the bill: independents, deficit hawks, pro-lifers, good-government types, taxpayers in Blue states getting the short end of the stick, union members with Cadillac plans (which are about to be taxed), small-business people, the “rich,” and those who thought the president meant it when he said he wasn’t going to tax the non-rich. Seems like lots and lots of people.

So who is going to gain from ObamaCare? The uninsured. But do they vote in great numbers? Not as much as seniors, certainly. And certainly not in numbers equal to all the anti-ObamaCare groups. Plus, remember the timeline: the uninsured don’t get anything from this bill until 2014. They are supposed to race to the polls to defend something they won’t see, if ever, until after the 2012 presidential race? Somehow I don’t see it.

The bill is really a political wonder, a tribute to the ability to forge alliances with disparate groups. It just happens to have done that for the opposition.