Peter Brown, assistant director for the Quinnipiac poll, tells us:
Time may be running out for the Obama administration to convince voters that the economy is recovering quickly enough to merit giving the president’s congressional allies the votes this November that will allow him and them to run the country for the next two years.
Brown argues that the perception of the economy’s progress is what is key (“Do voters believe the president’s policies have reinvigorated the economy enough since he took office in the midst of the financial crisis, or have his actions been responsible for the tepid recovery from what many consider the stiffest recession since the Great Depression?”), but that perception is grounded in an economic reality that is increasingly bleak, especially for job seekers.
The day after the jobs numbers were released, a headline in the Wall Street Journal blared: “U.S. Jobs Picture Darkens.” The report explained:
Nonfarm payrolls fell 125,000, their first month of losses this year, as the government let 225,000 census workers go, the Labor Department said Friday. Private-sector employment grew by a slight 83,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, and seems to have downshifted from average gains of nearly 200,000 in March and April.
The unemployment rate declined to 9.5% from 9.7% in May, but not because more jobs were available. Instead, 652,000 workers dropped out of the labor force, meaning they weren’t counted as unemployed and looking for work. … The economy shed jobs in June as meager private-sector hiring failed to make up for the end of thousands of temporary census worker jobs, the latest signal that an already-slow recovery might be shifting into an even lower gear.
Moreover, liberals’ favorite Keynesian solution — spend more of the taxpayers’ money (or in this case, borrow to spend more) — is increasingly “unappealing,” as even Democrats are spooked by mammoth deficits.
A Washington Post headline was similarly gloomy: “Economy lags as job growth remains weak.” Once again, we see that the Democrats are clueless about what to do now:
Voters are frustrated both with high unemployment and high budget deficits, but the Obama administration and congressional Democrats face a catch-22: The deficit won’t come down significantly until the jobless rate decreases, while most of the policies that could improve the employment situation would raise the deficit further, at least in the short run. …
Chronically high unemployment is creating a dilemma for congressional Democrats, particularly sophomores and freshmen from conservative swing districts where voter anger over the government’s bailout of the financial system, and skepticism about last year’s economic stimulus package, run high.
In sum, Obamanomics has proved to be as much of a bust as “smart diplomacy.” The new New Deal has worked as poorly as the original, and the barrage of tax increases, mandates, and uber-regulation has left the private sector reeling. So it is more than an image or perception problem. The Democrats have failed to deliver on their most critical promise: to spur the economic recovery and job growth. The voters will hold them accountable in four months.
