For those deprived of a “tea reading” experience in the NY-20 and looking to gauge the 2010 Congressional elections, the Virginia gubernatorial race provides some of the most interesting political action of 2009. The Democratic primary was thought to be dramatically altered once Clinton moneyman Terry McAuliffe entered the race. He raised some $4.2 million in the first quarter — an unprecedented sum. But it isn’t doing much good. Mirroring another recent poll, a new Kos poll shows him lagging behind former House Delegate Brian Moran 24-19%. It might be that the electorate is not yet paying attention (41% are undecided), but it is noteworthy that all that money hasn’t gotten McAuliffe anywhere and that his unfavorables remain remarkably high.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are getting nervous that Republican Bob McDonnell is waltzing through the spring with no primary opponent. So what to do? Well, launch murky third party attack campaigns for one. And then launch some really odd attack — featuring Robertson. This seems to abandon what has been the winning formula for Virginia Democrats like Tim Kaine and Mark Warner who embraced socially conservative voters.
It is unclear whether Virginia has really morphed into a Blue state indistinguishable from the northeast corridor states. Democrats seem to be banking that it is — and the proof will come in November, when Barack Obama’s name is not on the ballot and the electorate is likely much smaller than the record turnout in 2008.