The Florida state GOP has provided me with some helpful facts about what is going on in the days leading up to Tuesday’s primary. There is good reason why McCain, Rudy and Romney all have been working hard to win over Cuban Americans and other Hispanics. The Hispanic vote is significant–10.7% of Florida’s GOP voters. The state GOP does not have a party breakdown for veterans, but Florida does have the second largest veteran population (after California) at 1.7 million people. That may explain why, despite the economic news which is dominating the headlines, McCain continues to emphasize national security and is crowing about his latest endorser: General Norman Schwarzkopf.

Late-breaking events–or even tomorrow’s debate performance–may have a limited impact, since so many votes have already been cast. As of yesterday, 114,370 of the 285,259 outstanding absentee ballots had been returned. In early voting 113,755 votes have been cast. So as of yesterday, with the total rising every day, 228,125 votes have already been decided. (The state GOP expects turnout to be in the neighborhood of 1.4 million.) Early voting ends in some counties January 26 and on January 27 in others, which may spur even more people to make up their minds in the next few days.

According to this poll, McCain leads in early voting by six points over Rudy. This suggests that: 1) time is running out for McCain’s opponents; 2) despite the importance of economic news there is a substantial bloc of veteran voters (as in South Carolina) whom McCain can bank on; 3) we can expect to hear plenty about Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro at the debate; and 4) those counting on picking up Thompson votes should remember that a bunch of his supporters may already have voted for him.