This week Obama did not celebrate the one-year anniversary of his presidency. That is understandable. Who, on either side of the political aisle, would have imagined that at the one-year mark, his nationalized health-care plan would be failing, card check and cap-and-trade would be off the radar, and Obama’s approval rating would be under 50 percent? Couple that with the widespread repudiation of his approach to foreign policy (the exception, more or less, being the prosecution of the war against Islamic fascists in Afghanistan and Iraq), the growth of a grassroots conservative movement, and the victories for Republicans in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts, and you can appreciate how little there is for the Obama team to cheer. Obama has proved unable to move legislation or persuade voters in diverse locales. His base is annoyed and now skewers the president. This is all the more amazing, given his huge congressional majorities and the overwhelmingly sympathetic media coverage he received for much of the year.
Obama was compared to Lincoln and FDR (not to mention the Almighty); now the analogy is to Jimmy Carter. Last year the chatter was of a permanent Democratic majority; now the pundits are weighing whether one or both houses of Congress will flip to the Republicans. He was a political colossus and the harbinger of a new era in politics; now fellow Democrats would be wise to steer clear of him.
The reasons are many — ideological overreach, hubris, and sheer incompetence, to name a few. But the magnitude of the reversal of political fortunes should not be overlooked. It is a reminder that nothing in politics is “permanent” and that winning an election does not obviate the need to proceed with caution and being mindful of public consensus when tackling complex and far-reaching policy issues. It is a lesson — or should be — in an era of ubiquitous media spin that the substance of governance matters and that on matters that affect their lives, ordinary citizens can be relied upon to engage, participate, and affect the outcome of the national debate. It is confirmation that the liberal media may be heavily invested in elections and policy debates but do not predetermine the results. And above all, it is an affirmation of the inherent conservatism and common sense of the American people, who may be swept up in the passion of a campaign but retain a healthy aversion to statism and a fondness for freedom.
There are three years more in Obama’s first term. It would be a mistake to predict how it will all come out. But for now, unlike for the president, there is much for conservatives to celebrate.