This ABC report conveys the bewilderment expressed by many mainstream media folks that Barack Obama is not soaring to a substantial lead in the polls:

If this is the high point in the “bounce,” someone needs to put some more air in the ball. The new ABC News-Washington Post poll shows Sen. Barack Obama narrowly leading Sen. John McCain, 48-42 — about where his lead stood a month ago, and about where Sen. John Kerry’s lead stood four years ago at this time. The premium Obama, D-Ill., earned for surviving the primaries — as confirmed now by a number of recent polls — still leaves McCain, R-Ariz., well within striking distance. Surely it’s getting tiresome for Obama to have to continually confront his electoral challenges — but the fact remains that something is preventing him from capitalizing fully on the sour national mood toward Republicans. It’s “the conundrum of the 2008 presidential election: If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn’t everything so good for Barack Obama?” per ABC Polling Director Gary Langer . . . “It is closer than it should be,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said on “Good Morning America” Tuesday. “Senator Clinton’s supporters are still holding back.”

Should be? Well, if you expected Obama’s multiple demographic problems, ultra-liberal voting record, anemic last few months of campaigning, and troop of oddball advisers and associates to have no impact on the electorate, I guess you would be surprised too. The ABC poll notes McCain is doing well with older women and a quarter of Hillary Clinton’s supporters are favoring him, at least at this point. And McCain has won over his base (9 in 10 Republicans favor him) to a greater degree than Obama has.

It can’t be, the pundits wail. Yet it is. If you select a deeply flawed candidate it doesn’t mean you’ll lose the election, but you’ll make it darn close and potentially fritter away all of the advantages you held going in. Can the Democrats mess up a sure-fire winning year? Yes, they can.

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