John McCain spoke to the VFW in Kansas City today on the Iraq War. The speech in many ways sets out the contour of the fight he will have with his Democratic opponent. First, he tries to shape the political debate by contending that the choice in 2008 is about the future, not the past:

But the question for the next President is not about the past, but about the future and how to secure it. Our most vital security interests are at stake in Iraq. The stability of the entire Middle East, that volatile and critically important region, is at stake. The United States’ credibility as a moral and political leader is at stake. How to safeguard those interests is what we should be debating.

That argument jibes with the notion that elections are about the future, not the past. But with a majority of the public still believing the war was a mistake and the benefits outweighed by the costs, convincing voters of this will probably be an uphill battle.

Second, he tries to challenge his opponents’ proposed course of action. Pivoting off Barack Obama’s amorphous “strike force” he notes:

There are those who today argue for a hasty withdrawal from Iraq. Some would withdraw regardless of the consequences. Others say that we can withdraw now and then return if trouble starts again. What they are really proposing, if they mean what they say, is a policy of withdraw and re-invade. For if we withdraw hastily and irresponsibly, we will guarantee the trouble will come immediately. Our allies, Arab countries, the UN, and the Iraqis themselves will not step up to their responsibilities if we recklessly retreat. I can hardly imagine a more imprudent and dangerous course.

Here he is trying to focus the public on the results of what he contends is the Democrats’ “feel-good” strategy. Because the Democrats have yet to explain fully how departing Iraq would improve our security, he characterizes this as a failure of “leadership”:

To promise a withdrawal of our forces from Iraq, regardless of the calamitous consequences to the Iraqi people, our most vital interests, and the future of the Middle East, is the height of irresponsibility. It is a failure of leadership.

Will this speech change voters’ minds about Iraq? Quite possibly no. What we have seen over the last year is that facts on the ground, much more than political rhetoric, shift public opinion. But however you look at it, McCain has put the ball back into his opponents’ court to explain what they plan to do about al Qaeda in Iraq and how their plan for immediate withdrawal will aid America’s long term interests.