Although not for lack of trying, John McCain was never able to convince voters of — or get the media to focus on — the fallacy of then-candidate Barack Obama’s claim that he would provide a tax break for 95% of voters. Well, with the enormous spending increases it is becoming clearer that a whopping tax increase is in store for many voters. The Hill reports:

The Obama administration will be hard-pressed to avoid raising taxes on the middle class, according to economists crunching federal budget numbers in the lead-up to tax return day — today, April 15.

President Obama’s proposed changes to the tax code, combined with exploding entitlement costs, will lead to ever-growing debt, according to independent estimates. The big question for Obama and his economic team will be whether he can meet the rising costs with increased tax revenue only from small slices of the electorate.

[.  .  .]

Many economists, including some who voted for Obama, do not believe that he can indefinitely avoid imposing tax increases much further down the income scale — on the middle class.

Yes, they can seek more revenue from the rich, but the top 1% are already paying about 40% of the tax bill and the top 20% are paying about 70%. You can try to keep raising corporate taxes, but we already have one of the highest rates in the world, well in excess of European countries. So the only group to tap is the middle class, especially since spending has taken off with no end in sight:

More revenue will be needed to service the growing national debt. Because annual deficits are expected to remain above $500 billion for the next decade, [former Reagan economic aide and Obama supporter Martin] Sullivan expects debt payments to more than double, from about 1.2 percent of GDP to more than 3 percent.

Clint Stretch, managing principal for tax policy for Deloitte Tax, doubts the administration will be able to generate enough revenue with its current policies. Obama’s proposals would raise corporate taxes by about 10 percent, Stretch estimates, but his proposals would cut revenue overall from individuals.

And what about that Making Work Pay tax credit? It isn’t in either the House or Senate versions of the budget.

Unfortunately, McCain was right. Obama may have run as a tax cutter, but you should brace yourself for some of the largest tax hikes in history. Unless of course Congress gets the idea it would be political suicide and looks to a combination of spending restraint, tax reform, and pro-growth policies.