The bailout bill comfortably passed the Senate and will in all likelihood pass the House on Friday. (This is a reversal of how we usually think the Senate “saucer” cools the “hot cup” of the House. Usually that is accomplished by inaction–here the Senate acted.) Whether it will be enough to prevent a slide into a serious recession remains to be seen. What about the impact on the presidential race? There was an argument to be made, actually two by the McCain camp, that might have made a difference.
First, the McCain camp could have made the convincing argument that the Democrats’ devotion to “affordable housing” (i.e legislating risky loans) and “see no evil/hear no evil/speak no evil” approach to oversight was responsible for many of our woes. The fact that McCain advocated for Freddie/Fannie reform and Barack Obama worked for ACORN — which advocated the problematic policy at issue ( i.e. forced lending to risky borrowers) — would have been exclamation points on the argument. In a nutshell, Obama did nothing to avert and in fact contributed to the current debacle.
Second, in the legislative battle over the last couple of weeks Obama has been AWOL and ineffective in helping to usher in needed legislation. What’s worse Obama’s “Wall Street vs. Main Street” rhetoric only riled up the opposition. He was certainly not the bipartisan leader he’s billed himself to be.
Having declined to make either of these arguments (or to make them consistently and persuasively) is there anything more to be done by the McCain camp? It is hard to see now how he regains traction, but perhaps it is not too late to reconstruct either or both of these themes. That he hasn’t done either so far remains one of the mysteries and frustrations of Republicans who are left wondering why a campaign that looked so sure-footed and adept this summer has stumbled so badly in September.
Alternatively McCain can force himself to focus like a laser on the “road to recovery” plan — that is a conservative economic agenda to restore prosperity. Yes, spending restraint is part of that, but while a recession looms and 401K accounts look dismal it is a mistake to talk about bear DNA. People want to hear that he has a plan that makes sense which relates directly to their pocketbook.
As we have seen in this race, a month is an eternity in politics and it is folly to think that the outcome in a fluid, contentious race in a sharply divided country is preordained. The real issue is whether McCain has the vision and determination to construct a compelling argument for himself (or against Obama) that relates to the most important external event to date in the campaign.
