Well, Jim Tedisco may be down by only 25 votes. Even before this latest news, Republicans involved in the NY-20 were expressing a sense of relief, if not downright amazement, that they may have pulled this out. Part of this feeling is fueled by optimism over the absentee ballots. As the Daily News reports:

As of yesterday evening, the board had canvassed the 10 counties in the 20th and discovered that 10,055 absentee ballots had been issued by seven counties and 5,906 had been returned.

That number could go up, as three counties haven’t provided their numbers. Absentee ballots must be received by April 7, but the ballots sent in by overseas/federal/military voters (recall that there was a fight over those) can arrive by April 13 and still be counted.

Of the 10,055 absentees, the Repubicans have a roughly 600-ballot edge, according to the board. But of the 5,906 received to date, 798 more came from Republicans.

The Republicans’ relief is directly related to their prior sense that the race was lost, possibly by more than the 4 points reflected in the final poll. The president’s mailer had flooded the district, Joe Biden cut his radio ad, and union assistance in get-out-the-vote created the impression that the race was slipping from the Republicans’ grasp. (Privately, many Republicans concede their candidate did not make the most of his opportunities and took far too long to come to a position on the stimulus bill.)

So what happened? For starters, Jim Tedisco over-performed — by a lot — in his home base of Saragota county, which represents about a third of the votes in the district. Going in, Republicans expected him to narrowly win that county and he won 54% of the vote there. Some contend that Democrat Scott Murphy lost ground once those Obama mailers hit the district. But it may be that observers put too much credence in the final polling. The chattering political class forgets that polling in special elections is a tricky thing because turnout is utterly unpredictable.

Is it a referendum? Well, Democrats and their spinners today are saying “certainly not!” But not surprisingly, their main directive now is to insulate the White House, which did make a final pitch for their candidate, from any negative fallout. But both sides must realize that no one has yet won. If Minnesota is any guide, we may be at this for a good long while.