Pete, I concur with your smart take on the bone-crushing disappointment that those who took Obama’s message so seriously must now feel. There is an additional factor, I think, that’s working against him.

To be blunt, he’s not likable. His cool reserve comes across as condescension or insensitivity. He shows none of the self-deprecating humor that Ronald Reagan used to good effect. Unlike Bill Clinton, he doesn’t seem to relish the job of being president. He lashes out at critics, displays peevishness toward the media, which is far more sympathetic to him than nearly all his predecessors, and seems to resent inconveniences that are part and parcel of the job (e.g., the terrorist attack that interrupted his vacation).

Being liked isn’t everything, but the president needs an ongoing connection with the American people if he is to be successful and weather storms. When Clinton was going through impeachment proceedings, you had the sense he was going to survive, in large part because Americans, as exasperated as they were with him, were willing to cut him a lot of slack, as they would a relative who tried their patience but was part of the family nevertheless. During Iran-Contra, Americans stuck with Reagan, having forged a relationship of trust and affection with their president. Obama will regret not bonding with the American people and holding himself at such a distance from his fellow citizens. He will need their indulgence, and yes their affection, in tough times. Unless he works at cultivating that relationship with the American people and puts aside a level of snootiness that slipped out from time to time during the campaign (e.g., deriding those who clung to religion and guns), he may find himself without support when he needs it most.