John, like Sarah Palin and John McCain on ANWR, we’ll have to agree to disagree on the latest ad from the Obama team. But several things are noteworthy. First, none of the three ads out today have anything to do with Palin. That seems to confirm the view that conservatives and well-meaning Democrats have put forth: the Obama team can’t win against her and they need to get back to McCain. Second, I think many who have seen these campaigns play out again and again suspected that now would be the time for Obama to do something “new” =– a scandal drop or a new policy shift. This time of year is when a lot of these are done (after Labor Day, before the debates) to be followed by one last “October Surprise.” What we got today was a retread: McCain=Bush, McCain=No change. I think the reaction from many conservatives is: that’s all they got?

Perhaps one more time will convince voters. But for now McCain seems to have diffused the potency of “change” with his mavericky speech and VP choice. From Gallup:

One reason John McCain has taken a modest lead over Barack Obama among registered voters nationally may be his ability to share the mantle of “change agent.” More than half of Americans now see each candidate as potentially effective in changing the way the government works in Washington. At the same time, about two in three see each as potentially effective in addressing problems in the U.S. economy. . . [I]t appears that one successful outcome of the Republican National Convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate has been to allow McCain to become surprisingly competitive with Obama in Americans’ perceptions of not only his ability to change the way government works in Washington, but also his capability to address U.S. economic problems.

Now certainly repeating Obama’s side of the argument in sort of a What’s My Line? contest (“No, I’m the real agent of change. No I’m . . . “) is one way to go about regaining his footing. Perhaps it will work. But I think he’ll have to do more than say what he’s been saying for two years. And counting up years in the Senate and talking about lobbyists while Joe Biden is on his side may not be the best move. (Sure enough, Biden figures in this just-released RNC radio ad.)

One thing we know for sure: Obama doesn’t want to talk about Palin any more.