John, Barack Obama has an independent voter problem but he also has the challenge to keep Democrats in the fold. Even if you believe that most of the Hillary Clinton primary supporters won’t make good on their threat to vote for John McCain, there are many who will prefer McCain in the general election. The percentage of voters in the recent primaries threatening to do just that, especially in Rust Belt states, has been astonishingly high. So yes, he has a head start with Democratic primary voters, but he has some demographic and electoral challenges. And then there is Florida.

Is he the favorite? Not as much as he used to be.