Republican Bob McDonnell is now running full steam against Obama—and is doing so quite effectively, according to the Wall Street Journal. The report explains:

Mr. McDonnell, a former Virginia attorney general and state lawmaker, has pounded his Democratic opponent as a disciple of Mr. Obama and congressional Democrats, and built a lead of 10 to 12 percentage points in most polls. A Survey USA poll released Sept. 3 found that 13% of last year’s Obama voters planned to vote for Mr. McDonnell.

[. . .]

Going into the campaign, Democrats were expected to capitalize not only on Mr. Obama’s popularity but also on a Democratic winning streak that began with Mark Warner’s gubernatorial win in 2001, followed by victories by current Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005, Sen. Jim Webb in 2006 and Mr. Warner again in a 2008 landslide victory for the other Senate seat. (Virginia governors are limited to serving one four-year term and cannot seek re-election.)

Mr. Deeds hasn’t had an easy road. He had to pull off a come-from-behind win in the primary and bring in more experienced campaign staff. And he continues to struggle to present a defining issue that resonates broadly with voters — this week, his message seemed to be education overhaul. The lack of a clear image has left him vulnerable to Mr. McDonnell’s accusation that he is in lockstep with Mr. Obama and congressional Democrats.

The report doesn’t think too much of the Washington Post‘s obsession with a 20-year-old term paper. More significant is the unbroken record dating back to 1977 of the party that won the White House losing the Virginia gubernatorial race:

“Voters in Virginia tend to take on the mission of the founding fathers, who believed in balance. Apparently this thing has become an iron law. It’s just fascinating,” said political science Prof. Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia. “It really does give McDonnell a major boost. While this thesis controversy helps Deeds, that can’t counteract this movement away from Obama.”

We have almost two months left in the race, but that Deeds’s main challenge is coming up with issues on which he can distance himself from the increasingly unpopular agenda of a president who pulled out a historic victory in the state 10 months ago says a lot about where the race now stands.