Silly season in the VP speculation game took place months ago, far before anyone had been vetted and even before Barack Obama had secured the nomination. Now we have silly season part two — where winks, nods, and canvassing the base are all picked over and examined. What does it mean? Is this a sign? Are we being spun? We simply don’t know if someone is canvassing to satisfy a concern or to prove that a certain concern is a non-issue.

What we do know is that John McCain is an intensely personal politician. He likes who he likes and doesn’t like who he doesn’t. He is not the sort of person to put intuition aside and look at poll numbers. We know his number one concern is national security. And that’s about all. Many–but not all–of the names being floated and refloated could be acceptable to McCain. And it is entirely believable that McCain will make this decision largely on his own.

All that said, I do agree that Barack Obama has proven himself to be so extreme on social issues and so frivolous on matters of national security that McCain, rightly or wrongly, may feel empowered to choose a candidate who is less than ideal to the conservative base. Where are they going to go on Election day? (“Home!” might be the answer, but McCain may not be convinced.)

So unless McCain himself decides to spill the beans, I think everyone will have to breathe deeply and wait a week or so. But the smart money would be on someone McCain trusts deeply and who would be a credible commander-in-chief.