In a tidy recap of the situation in Iraq, the Wall Street Journal contends:
The good news in Iraq is increasingly undeniable, even to the media. In March, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered Iraqi troops to retake the southern Shiite city of Basra from Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. After a shaky start, the city has now been liberated from Sadrist goon squads, and it is mostly peaceful. “The presence of the Iraqi army has made people safe, not 100%, but 90%,” a Basra barber told the Washington Post. The army is pursuing the Sadrists in their last redoubt, Amarah, while other radicals have followed Moqtada to Iran.
After reviewing the ample evidence of military and political progress the Journal editors conclude:
All of this means that it is now possible to foresee not merely a stable Iraq, but also one that can achieve our original strategic goals in the region. The strategist Frederick Kagan – an architect of the surge – makes the analogy to West Germany during the Cold War. A secure and pro-American Iraq would be crucial to expanding U.S. influence in the Arab heart of the Middle East, and especially to containing Iran. A democratic Iraq can serve as an alternative pole of Shiite power in the region, as well as an alternative political model to theocratic, radical Tehran.
Ah, were it only so. Barack Obama does in fact deny the progress made. For him, progress is not only deniable, the alleged failure to accomplish anything of worth in Iraq remains a central premise of his campaign. Because he remains wedded to that narrative he doesn’t foresee a good outcome.
One of several results is possible. First, Obama can recognize reality and retreat from his retreat policy. (He is acquiring a long list of these “never mind” items, from unconditional talks with rogue states to the status of Jerusalem to devotion to Trinity United Church, so maybe he can just slip this one in.) There are obvious political dangers there. Second, he can keep it up and see if things take a turn for the worse in Iraq. Betting against American success is unseemly, but a tried and true political tactic of the Left. Third, he can shift rationales — yeah, we are winning but it costs too much or yeah, we are winning , so we can now leave — but not his policy objective.
Still, the central point of the Journal’s editors is sobering, namely that “we can now say with certainty that we will win, as long as we don’t repeat our earlier mistakes and seek to draw down too soon.” Absent any sign Obama has opted for the “recognize reality” option, there appears a very grave risk that this is precisely what he will do if elected.
