We have less than fifty days before the election. We see four or five new ads, multiple speeches and townhalls, an interview or two and as many as twenty polls per day. So what matters and what doesn’t?

I start with the premise that it is impossible from the data we have now to know how this will turn out. And national polls are crack for pundits and news junkies. Take it from Gallup, which explains the wide variation between polling between Labor Day and Election Day. Especially in a close election, when the margin of error is greater than the spread between the candidates, polls are of marginal utility. And if you don’t believe me, look at the final polling in 2004. Is it fun? Does it show “movement”? Sure. But I put it in the “not very” category on measuring what matters.

State polling from reputable outfits as we get closer to the end I put in the “matters” category. But even more telling is where the candidates go. That tells you what’s in play and what’s not.

The debates? They matter a whole lot. In 1976 and 1980 they were arguably the tipping point which convinced voters Gerald Ford wasn’t quite up to it and Ronald Reagan was. How the candidates react to “unknown unknowns”? I rank that high on the “matters” list. (As we drew to the end of the week John McCain was gaining his footing in this regard, I would argue.) And finally, turnout/base enthusiasm matters tremendously, especially in a close election like this. Again, Obama’s edge in this regard –like his money advantage — may prove to be illusory.

The bottom line: no one knows how it’s going to turn out. I bet that the candidate who has a quicker reaction time (whether in a crisis or in a debate) will win.

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