Plainly, Obama’s poll numbers have hit the skids, as poll after poll registers new lows in approval and new highs in disapproval. More independents now disapprove than approve of his performance. And more voters disapprove of his handling of specific issues such as health care. So what happened, and why now?
Well, it has been a long slide down for Obama; this didn’t all happen in one week or one month. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that something has crystallized over the last few weeks. Perhaps it was the two gubernatorial elections, confirming quiet dissension and suggesting that, yes, things really aren’t going in the right direction. Maybe the plethora of foreign policy debacles — the Middle East, the abject failure at engaging Iran, the dithering on Afghanistan, bowing before yet another monarch — have caught up and shaken Americans. And then there is the mega-error, the decision to try KSM in federal court, which has proved overwhelmingly unpopular. Over on the domestic side, unemployment, the failed stimulus, and the mound of debt suggest that the Obama team frankly hasn’t a clue about how to restore fiscal sanity and growth. There too a crowning insult is in the works — a monstrous health-care bill most voters don’t want.
You simply can’t do all that and expect the country to follow you. The public has, I suspect, started to assess Obama on what he is doing rather than on who he is. Yes, his election was historic. Now what? They didn’t bargain for this, really. The wanted less debt, not more; less spending, not more; and more competence, not less. And they wanted a president who places their safety and security above all else.
And then there is Obama himself. The complaints are familiar — overexposed, too remote, too snippy. And something else may be at work. There is a point at which the rhetoric of a president becomes so divorced from reality that it no longer serves to cushion the blow or distract the public from unpleasant news, but rather to raise questions as to whether he “gets it.” When he says he isn’t dithering but he is, or when he declares himself not to be naive about our enemies but behaves as if he were, the public begins to tune out and wonder,”Who’s he kidding?” There is a point at which voters simply stop believing the president and move on. (For George W. Bush that moment was Katrina.)
It is not then, I think, a single gaffe or one set of bad economic numbers that plagues Obama. It is the growing realization by more and more voters that Obama doesn’t believe in what they believe and lacks basic governing skills. One of those skills is self-awareness. And without that, he’s unlikely to change course or improve his performance.
