Remember the big jump in the polls, the large lead Barack Obama was supposed to get once he wrapped the nomination? Well, where is it? He’s up by a meager six points, according to this Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. And he’s ahead by fewer than five points in the RealClearPolitics averages. The Journal explains:
The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this “the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.
But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white-male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white women, particularly suburbanites, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive.
And these polls reflect the state of play before the James Johnson blunder, when the “historic” news of Obama’s nomination and the victorious images of him at the Xcel Center still dominated the media. That’s not too exciting, if you are a Democrat.
Could it be that crowd size and media enthusiasm have virtually nothing to do with how the vast majority of voters views the candidates? That’s a fairly good theory, it seems. Another explanation is that Obama has not had a good month since February. He’s been losing primaries, his troublesome cohorts have been popping up right and left, and the veneer of the post-partisan, post-racial candidate has been scuffed up considerably.
What did the Democrats expect? When you win primaries with a narrow coalition of African Americans, ultra-liberals, and young people, your national poll numbers in a general election (where those voters do not predominate) won’t be as strong as a candidate with a broad base of support among all demographic groups. Heck, if they wanted a candidate to match the Democratic/Republican generic poll numbers, they should have nominated one of those nice, solid types with lots of experience now being considered for Obama’s VP.
