As others have cataloged, the public option is taking a pounding today. The Blue Dogs are saying no way, while the White House is sounding about as resolute as they did on Friday when reporters asked about the fate of Van Jones. Yet the president is going to stand before the nation tomorrow, supposedly to get serious—and say what exactly? From early reports, it sounds like he’s not going to formally abandon the public option, at least not yet. And if he isn’t going to be clear about that, then really, how seriously should we take the rest of his speech?

The speech is in some ways an exercise of ego—the great orator (or so we’ve been told) who has lost the public on the issue needs to get back his mojo and wants to turn off the media chatter about a floundering presidency. So he goes back to the “grand speech” formula. But his problem is not purely a rhetorical one. It is one of substance and of legislative dealmaking. He needs to find his inner LBJ if he is to succeed, not return to campaign mode, which frankly hasn’t done him any good while in office.

If the president hasn’t figured out what deal he wants—and what deal he can get—it might have been a good idea to forgo the speech and call for a summit of congressional leaders to hammer out a deal. That would have shown a devotion to serious governance. But that’s not Obama’s style. We’ll see if the public—and more important, Congress—has the patience for yet another grand address and whether this magically unlocks a health-care deal. Ironically, the public might be more curious and take more seriously what Obama has to say if he had not seriously overexposed himself and tried everyone’s patience. At this late date, many suspect they’ve already heard it all.