Lots of people have theories about why John McCain is in very good shape for tomorrow. Some think it’s his personal characteristics. (The Pew poll offers some support for this theory with McCain’s favorable/unfavorable split at 72-18% among Republicans and Romney at 49-30%). Some think McCain has shown himself to be a real conservative. Others think being conservative or super-conservative is not enough to win elections, let alone Republican primaries. Some think the competition was weak. Still others find that Mitt Romney’s position changes (even on items in his own life story)are too much to bear, leaving them with no choice but to “question his sincerity.”

There are many reasons, but I would suggest an overriding one: the surge. Without McCain’s determination on the surge and its resulting success, the race would look quite different. In that effort, McCain did show his personal characteristics (tenacity and bravery, most clearly) and many Republicans, conservatives included, came to see him as a warrior in the toughest policy battle in recent memory. It was the means by which he distinguished himself from his competition and by which he could appeal to skeptics who came to see his past policy heresies in greater perspective. (Or it could just be that the competition was very, very weak.)