With the growing likelihood that there will be an open/or brokered/or contested Republican convention — which really would be an unprecedented event for which there are no meaningful parallels in our history — people are already trying very hard to limit its potential scope three months before it begins. It’s nuts, says the analyst Liam Donovan, to consider Speaker Paul Ryan as the “white knight” around whom the convention’s 2,473 delegates can rally on a later ballot. It’ll be Trump or Cruz, says Rich Lowry. Others continue to look at polls that say John Kasich might perform best against Hillary Clinton and defend his continuing presence in the race.
Sorry, guys, but unprecedented is unprecedented. There’s no way to know how this will, should, or could or might go. Factors we do not yet know will play a gigantic role — like how well Ted Cruz does between now and the final primary on June 7 in California, and whether Trump rights his teetering ship or continues to take on water, and what polls will in fact show when it comes to electability in June. For instance, if Trump is down 20 points to Hillary Clinton but Cruz is down 5, that will surely make a difference as delegates consider the future. But if Trump is down 10 and Cruz is down 7, it likely won’t. And if Kasich doesn’t win any more delegates or only a few, there’s no reason for anyone to consider him for any reason other than his poll numbers are OK, and he might deliver Ohio.
Many of those who argue Trump can and should be denied the nomination if he fails to come into the convention with a majority of the delegates — and who are actively trumpeting scenarios and methods by which Cruz (and maybe Kasich) can win delegates here and delegates there to ensure Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 — also argue simultaneously that say that Cruz must and should, therefore, become the nominee. And that just doesn’t make logical sense, or at least, it doesn’t to me.
The anti-Trump case is simple. The rules say the nominee must have a majority, and if he doesn’t come in with a majority, tough luck, Orange One. No first ballot victory for you. Then many of the delegates get released to make their own decisions, and so much for him. The primaries and caucuses are convened to choose a consensus candidate for the party. An open convention means the primaries and caucuses will have failed to do this, and, therefore, the convention must make the choice — the delegates will select the nominee instead because the voters were sadly unable to do so. That is the only way in which the open convention would have any legitimacy.
Look, to say it shouldn’t be Trump under these conditions is fine, especially for those of us who believe Trump is just about the worst thing to happen in American politics in our lifetimes. But the logic governing that idea can’t simply apply only to Trump because he’s so bad. If Trump doesn’t get to 1,237, neither will Cruz. If you’re going to claim in July that it matters profoundly whom the voters voted for before the convention, then by simple logic the #1 guy deserves it more than the #2 guy. Period.
Either it matters whom the voters chose, or it doesn’t. So, at that stage, if Ted and the Cruzians argue he should win it over Trump in part because he won a lot of states and won a lot of delegates, they will be gliding over the obvious fact that Cruz won fewer states and has fewer delegates than Trump did. It would be a terrible argument for him. Terrible. If it would be stealing for someone else to get it aside from Cruz, it would be worse stealing if it ended up being someone aside from Trump. The logic here would almost justify the riots and fights the Trumpkins have already promised.
Look, obviously, Cruz and Trump would be best situated to convince the delegates to come over to their sides and help them get to the magic 1,237 number on later ballots. They will have loyalists by the hundreds who will stick with them and others do not. That fact certainly takes into account the results of the primaries and caucuses. But their primary/caucus delegate take simply cannot serve as a governing argument for the choice in July at the convention. The only “fair” way to deny Trump the nomination is for everyone (except for Trump, who cannot be expected to follow along) to say that, in accordance with rules governing who must vote for whom on which ballot, the slate has been wiped entirely clean, and everything is starting over from scratch. So yes, in that circumstance, in theory, Paul Ryan could be the nominee just as readily as Ted Cruz. So could Nikki Haley. Or Susana Martinez. Or you. Or I.
I’m not saying Cruz wouldn’t have the potentially decisive advantage. But he and everybody else needs to face facts and logic. Like Trump, Cruz won’t be coming in a winner. He’ll be coming in a loser. The only winner would be the candidate who brings 1,237 delegates with him to the convention.
What I’m laying out here isn’t a scenario for a happy convention, or even for a happy result in November. But if you die by 1,237 you live by 1,237, no matter who you are.
