The economic news of the past 48 hours, combined with polling data this week, has suddenly snapped into focus the actual question of the 2012 election: Can anything save Barack Obama? In the National Journal, Charlie Cook—both a serious political analyst and a conventional-wisdom weathervane—spends 1,000 words harrumphing about how the GOP is going too far t0 the right but also says, “To put it more simply, this election is the Republican Party’s to lose.”

I’m not so sure about that. Elections are referenda on the incumbent. Seven presidents since World War II found themselves in the same straits; five were no longer president after the next election day. This incumbent is in more trouble than any other in the past 30 years

I explain the reasons why in today’s New York Post.