Re: “Both Sides Digging in Over Budget Deal,” I agree with Pete this is a debate the GOP should win–and will win–in the long term. I’m slightly less sanguine it will win in the short term.

As Charles Krauthammer explained on Fox News Special Report last evening, when the government hits the wall in early August, and no deal is in place, then the Treasury will have to decide which bills it will pay and which ones to defer. Presumably, it will choose to meet our obligations regarding the principal and interest on the debt, thus avoiding a default.  But it will be up to the Obama administration to pick and choose among the other obligations. 

They could pick to defer those that would cause the least disruption to the economy, or they could choose those that would cause the biggest political backlash. I’m not sure the administration has the authority to order the Social Security Administration not to issue checks–an act that would produce an instant firestorm–but it certainly has the power to hold up other checks, such as unemployment and welfare, that would achieve much the same result.

Which path would this administration, steeped in Chicago ways, choose? You got it: hold up Grandma’s check and blame the GOP. With the media a certain ally (in medialand, after all, it’s always Republicans who “shut down the government”), that would put a huge amount of pressure on GOP lawmakers to cave.

If the Republicans are smart, they will make an issue–now!–of what should be deferred and what not in case of an impasse and demand those least able to cope with an interruption be protected.