The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has collapsed. Sunni rebels, backed by Turkey and Qatar, completed their lightning offensive last night after just a few short days of fighting. Assad’s whereabouts are unknown.
First, a quick salute to the Syrian people. They suffered mightily under Bashar’s father, the brutal dictator, Hafez al-Assad, for 29 years, and experienced a brief moment of hope when Bashar rose to power in 2000 after his father’s passing. But Bashar, a London-trained ophthalmologist, proved to be just as brutal as his father. The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011 amidst the outbreak of the Arab Spring, spurred Bashar to enlist the help of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to crack down on his own people. As many as a half million Syrians were killed. Entire towns were reduced to rubble. And millions of Syrians were displaced, thus altering the politics and stability of the European countries that took them in. The Syrian people can finally begin to think about a post-Assad future.
For those concerned about Russia’s great power aspirations, this is also good news. Russia entered the Syrian arena after the Obama Administration’s 2013 “Red Line” debacle. Russian strongman Vladimir Putin stepped in to the void after Obama—following an absolute promise to do it—refused to punish Assad for using chemical weapons on his own people. Putin established outposts across the country after helping Assad (temporarily) defeat the Sunni jihadists threatening his rule. Now Putin’s ability to project power in the Middle East is now nil. In fairness, it was already on life support after the Israelis bombed Russia’s S-300 air defense systems in Iran back in October, with relative ease.
As for the Israelis, they are cautiously sanguine this morning. Assad’s Syria was a key component of the Iranian “Shiite Crescent”—the large chunk of Middle East real estate stretching eastward from Iran, through Iraq, across Syria and into Lebanon. Syria was a key transit point for Iranian weapons smuggled into Lebanon for Hezbollah. More to the point, it was a proxy state hollowed out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for the Iranian regime to project power across the region. This is now no longer.
The Israelis have not popped the champagne, however. Unconfirmed reports suggest the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has already targeted the chemical weapons facilities in Syria, to ensure that these lethal weapons do not fall into the hands of the Sunni fighters that just conquered the country. The Israelis have been targeting Iranian facilities used to assemble advanced weapons that were once used to arm Hezbollah. Israeli officials are also concerned about aircraft, advanced missiles and drones, and other platforms that have been captured by the jihadi forces that now control Syria.
But on balance, it’s probably fair to say that Israel is pleased to see the end of the Assad regime, the departure of Iran’s diplomats and advisors, and the hasty retreat of the Hezbollah fighters that failed to defend the regime.
But now for the difficult question: what next?
The most powerful fighting force behind the routing of the Assad regime is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Formerly known as the Nusra Front, this is al-Qaeda’s affiliate group in Syria. It underwent a facelift in 2016, upon the urging of the Qatari regime, which sought to put a kinder, gentler face on the Islamist group (among others, including Hamas in 2017).
There is no reason to believe that this group is moderate, let alone pragmatic. Some might point to the patronage of nominal American allies Qatar and Turkey as reason to hold out hope. But it is worth remembering that Qatar, even though it is a “Major Non-NATO ally” of the United States, is a sponsor of Hamas, Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and even the Islamic State. Turkey, an actual NATO member, has also served as a patron of Hamas, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State. Ankara helped Iran launder more than $20 billion in cash and gold, right at the height of the U.S. sanctions campaign designed to hinder its nuclear advances between 2012 and 2016. Both regimes and their leaders are avowed supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and its associated Islamist movements. To put it mildly, this is not a recipe for regional peace.
The Syrian border with Israel, now fortified with ground troops and air power, is one to watch in the weeks and months ahead. The Israelis have already taken the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. But Northern Syria is another flashpoint to watch. This is the Kurdish region, which is already a target for the Turks and their Sunni jihadi proxies. The Kurdish People’s Defense Units or YPG have been a consistent concern for Ankara because of the group’s close ties to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group in Turkey and in the United States. Never mind that the YPG played a significant role in the US campaign to defeat ISIS. Troublingly, Turkey has unfinished business in Syria. The Kurdish people, who have suffered mightily throughout their history, are slated for more suffering.
Alarmingly, the lame duck Biden Administration looks like a bystander. The region has its eyes instead on the X feed of President-Elect Donald Trump, who has advised America to simply let the drama in Syria play out. This may ultimately be the American interest, but the incoming Trump team should warn the patrons of the Syrian rebels—Turkey and Qatar—to keep their fighters away from America’s allies. This should include both Israel and the Kurds.
Some analysts believe that a consolidated Syrian state under Sunni control, after more than half a century of dominance by the country’s Alawite minority, could portend stability. Still others believe that sectarian cantons could emerge. Still others see the eventual Balkanization of the country. It’s obviously too soon to predict, but it certainly seems as if the Sunni rebels will dominate most if not, all of the country when the guns fall silent.
Whatever the map ultimately looks like, we are watching the return of a competition between two storied Middle East empires. The Iranian aspirations for a resurrected Persian empire experienced a massive setback yesterday. But those in Turkey seeking a neo-Ottoman order in the Middle East are elated. In other words, Syria has flipped from an Iranian satrap to an Ottoman sanjak overnight.
The fight for Syria appears to be over. The end of the Assad regime is an historic event. But history is still being written. The regional war launched by Hamas on October 7 has backfired horribly on its patrons in Tehran. Whether other unintended consequences follow is yet to be seen.
