Yesterday, in an exchange with reporters aboard his plane, Donald Trump offered up the latest in a series of baffling flip-flops on illegal immigration. When asked by a reporter whether he was ruling out a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants, Trump replied, “I’m not ruling out anything.” That was a reversal of the hard-line stand he took in his big immigration speech last week in Arizona, which was itself a reversal of statements made by the candidate and his campaign staff about “softening” the harsh positions he’s been spouting since he began running for president.
If you find that confusing, you’re not alone. Trump’s surrogates are hard-pressed to keep pace with their man’s statements and are reduced to disingenuously insisting that he’s been consistent. But even amid the dishonest spin, one of them, Katrina Pierson, may have blurted out the truth this morning. She said on CNN that Trump’s position wasn’t a big deal because “immigration is not showing to be a top priority for Americans in this election cycle.” She’s right about that, even if it contradicts everything Trump has said. And it’s the only possible conclusion to draw from the results of the latest national poll that shows Trump gaining ground on Hillary Clinton.
The new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump edging ahead of Clinton by two points among likely voters. Coming from a poll that has consistently shown Clinton leading by significant margins, it should be taken seriously. Even more important are two other numbers that came out of the survey. For the first time, Clinton’s unfavorable ratings exceeded those of Trump. The former secretary of state is disliked by 57 percent of Americans polled while Trump comes in at 56 percent. Both are historically high figures, but if you throw in the fact that CNN/ORC also finds that Trump is viewed as honest and trustworthy by 50 percent of Americans while only 35 percent would say the same about Clinton, then an election that seemed to be in the Democrats’ pocket a few weeks ago might actually be up for grabs.
That a man who won’t release his tax returns, has no principled beliefs, and has never had a position that couldn’t be reversed can be viewed as honest and trustworthy boggles the mind. But in politics, as in much of life, such judgments rest primarily on the comparison with the alternative. Which is to say that after a year and a half of Democrats telling us that no one but the vast right-wing conspiracy cares about Clinton’s scandals and the lies about them, their understanding of the voters’ interests may be mistaken. Voters may not like Trump, nor can they count on him to do as he says. But they also care about the stench of corruption that emanates from the Clinton machine and all it touches.
The shift in polling doesn’t necessarily doom Clinton. She is still leading in virtually every swing state and that edge is dragging down embattled Republican Congressional candidates to the point where the Democrats are now favored to take back control of the Senate. Her demographic edges among women, minorities, and young voters are still impressive. But it’s also true that if enough Americans view her record with even more disgust than that of Trump, the turnout models that seemed to guarantee her victory in November may be flawed.
Clinton’s decision to actually take questions from the reporters covering her campaign for the first time in several months may reflect a realization that her attempt to stonewall the press is counterproductive. This election is as much a referendum about her problems as it is about Trump’s well-known flaws. Given Trump’s lack of discipline, the focus may soon return to him and rescue the floundering Democrat. But in an election where both major candidates are disliked, nothing can be taken for granted.