Laura Rozen is reporting that an Obama appearance at the AIPAC conference this coming weekend is likely and that it may be followed up next month with the long awaited presidential trip to Israel. That’s exactly the sort of thing that would be a huge applause line in a presidential speech at the gathering. The last time Obama heard that much cheering from a Jewish audience was probably his 2008 appearance at AIPAC when he expressed his undying support for a united Jerusalem. Of course, that was a pledge that was rescinded within 24 hours.

For much of the last two years, Jewish groups have been carrying on about how important it would be for Obama to visit Israel again (he made a campaign stop there in 2008 as part of his effort to convince Jewish Democrats that he was a garden variety American politician with no axe to grind against Israel).

That was a mistake.

By holding out a trip to visit America’s only democratic ally in the Middle East out as a present rather than a normal aspect of statecraft between the two nations, the administration has put itself in a position to demand some sort of concession from the Netanyahu government as a prerequisite for following through on the pledge. Since Jerusalem will be loathe to be branded as the obstacle to Obama’s fulfillment of a promise to visit, we may expect Obama to ask for something from Israel as a guarantee of his intent to visit. Though there is great symbolic value in the sight of a president of the United States visiting Israel, it is not so valuable that American Jews should have wasted their time and political influence advocating for it when the very tangible price tag for this event may be steeper than any friend of the Jewish state ought to want it to pay.